Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 22.814463 24.810612 26.962485 29.465098 32.308785 35.455156 39.221361
2026-01-11 19.785546 22.550593 25.740642 29.735527 34.665439 40.632967 48.534472
2026-01-18 17.441227 20.583106 24.398665 29.462562 36.148144 44.888308 57.566655
2026-01-25 15.780304 19.144859 23.403143 29.333666 37.630694 49.249583 67.610670
2026-02-01 14.537073 18.044157 22.638944 29.308344 39.129537 53.776540 78.903761
2026-02-08 13.504021 17.084395 21.913881 29.178138 40.370644 58.049820 90.848343
2026-02-15 12.638040 16.252409 21.252291 29.012860 41.468607 62.222146 103.758231
2026-02-22 11.894727 15.516335 20.638620 28.815664 42.438432 66.302230 117.735830
2026-03-01 11.296052 14.930667 20.178451 28.780818 43.635466 70.976456 134.567329
2026-03-08 10.771752 14.408602 19.759353 28.748280 44.804099 75.803307 153.650107
2026-03-15 10.521167 14.266934 19.898736 29.635040 47.740949 84.808533 187.530412
2026-03-22 10.028809 13.725485 19.366117 29.312463 48.339854 88.975296 210.276044
2026-03-29 9.617875 13.294613 18.995146 29.267066 49.545262 94.985648 243.158366
2026-04-05 9.300998 12.990737 18.808163 29.534629 51.442640 103.226893 290.432214
2026-04-12 8.909669 12.545789 18.354909 29.264138 52.167307 108.757186 332.629844
2026-04-19 8.576776 12.174393 17.997793 29.136414 53.184602 115.407584 387.058460
2026-04-26 8.288194 11.857646 17.710424 29.111311 54.430021 123.137048 457.137737
2026-05-03 8.004868 11.533673 17.387649 28.982329 55.412793 130.451750 536.789859
2026-05-10 7.736980 11.221057 17.063850 28.818610 56.287770 137.780941 630.969620
2026-05-17 7.483191 10.919224 16.739927 28.623272 57.056343 145.092969 742.634605
2026-05-24 7.269780 10.674860 16.503973 28.588753 58.237182 154.397341 899.800634
2026-05-31 7.070315 10.444578 16.279290 28.556522 59.424255 164.304515 1102.313915
2026-06-07 7.004176 10.438813 16.466821 29.434886 63.274132 186.926293 1603.343698